Recent positive momentum in Mexico’s economic activity has lifted trader expectations for Q3 2026 GDP growth, with the 3.0-3.5% range holding the highest implied probability at 33.1%. Stronger-than-expected Q2 results, including 1.4% quarter-over-quarter expansion and 2.1% year-over-year growth, combined with July’s 3.3% year-over-year IGAE reading, have prompted upward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by the IMF to 1.5% and private analysts to 1.4%. Supporting factors include resilient consumption, real wage gains, and manufacturing demand tied to U.S. AI supply chains, though mixed signals from flat consumption, softening formal employment, September inflation rising to 3.45%, and external trade uncertainties continue to cap consensus around the 2.0-3.0% bands. Q3 preliminary data, due later this month, and Banxico’s next policy signals represent key near-term catalysts.