Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.6% quarter-over-quarter has weighed on trader sentiment for the Q2 print, creating closely matched implied probabilities across low-positive and negative growth ranges. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty scheduled for July, alongside tariff risks under current U.S. trade policy, continues to pressure exports and investment, while resilient household consumption and gradual formal employment gains provide limited support. Analysts' full-year 2026 forecasts cluster between 1.3% and 1.8%, reflecting modest rebound expectations tempered by elevated core inflation near 3.8% and softer industrial output. This balance of downside catalysts from trade frictions against domestic demand stability explains the competitive odds structure, with resolution likely hinging on June high-frequency indicators and any early signals from Banxico communications ahead of the Q2 release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.5%+ 18%
1.5-2.0% 14%
0.5-1.0% 10%
<-0.5% 0
新規
新規
2026/07/30
<-0.5%
-
-0.5～0.0％
48%
0.0-0.5%
48%
0.5-1.0%
25%
1.0-1.5%
48%
1.5-2.0%
14%
2.0-2.5%
46%
2.5%+
18%
2.5%+ 18%
1.5-2.0% 14%
0.5-1.0% 10%
<-0.5% 0
新規
新規
2026/07/30
<-0.5%
$34 Vol.
-
-0.5～0.0％
$54 Vol.
48%
0.0-0.5%
$223 Vol.
48%
0.5-1.0%
$70 Vol.
25%
1.0-1.5%
$32 Vol.
48%
1.5-2.0%
$30 Vol.
14%
2.0-2.5%
$51 Vol.
46%
2.5%+
$30 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.6% quarter-over-quarter has weighed on trader sentiment for the Q2 print, creating closely matched implied probabilities across low-positive and negative growth ranges. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty scheduled for July, alongside tariff risks under current U.S. trade policy, continues to pressure exports and investment, while resilient household consumption and gradual formal employment gains provide limited support. Analysts' full-year 2026 forecasts cluster between 1.3% and 1.8%, reflecting modest rebound expectations tempered by elevated core inflation near 3.8% and softer industrial output. This balance of downside catalysts from trade frictions against domestic demand stability explains the competitive odds structure, with resolution likely hinging on June high-frequency indicators and any early signals from Banxico communications ahead of the Q2 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
音量
$525終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.6% quarter-over-quarter has weighed on trader sentiment for the Q2 print, creating closely matched implied probabilities across low-positive and negative growth ranges. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty scheduled for July, alongside tariff risks under current U.S. trade policy, continues to pressure exports and investment, while resilient household consumption and gradual formal employment gains provide limited support. Analysts' full-year 2026 forecasts cluster between 1.3% and 1.8%, reflecting modest rebound expectations tempered by elevated core inflation near 3.8% and softer industrial output. This balance of downside catalysts from trade frictions against domestic demand stability explains the competitive odds structure, with resolution likely hinging on June high-frequency indicators and any early signals from Banxico communications ahead of the Q2 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$525終了日
2026/07/30マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.6% quarter-over-quarter has weighed on trader sentiment for the Q2 print, creating closely matched implied probabilities across low-positive and negative growth ranges. Persistent USMCA review uncertainty scheduled for July, alongside tariff risks under current U.S. trade policy, continues to pressure exports and investment, while resilient household consumption and gradual formal employment gains provide limited support. Analysts' full-year 2026 forecasts cluster between 1.3% and 1.8%, reflecting modest rebound expectations tempered by elevated core inflation near 3.8% and softer industrial output. This balance of downside catalysts from trade frictions against domestic demand stability explains the competitive odds structure, with resolution likely hinging on June high-frequency indicators and any early signals from Banxico communications ahead of the Q2 release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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