Recent observational data and forecast model consensus from Environment Canada positioned the overnight minimum near 12°C on September 14, driving the 75.5% market-implied probability for that threshold. Clear skies, light southerly winds, and dew points in the upper single digits allowed radiational cooling to reach this level without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air, aligning closely with the 14.2°C climatological average low for the date while falling short of warmer scenarios. Updated model runs on September 13–14 showed minimal spread around this value, with no late revisions from incoming frontal systems or precipitation that could have altered the minimum. Official station reports confirming a low in the 11–13°C range would resolve the market, underscoring how real-time meteorological conditions and historical baselines informed trader consensus ahead of final verification.