The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 24?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$17,327 Vol.
$17,327 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$17,327 Vol.
$17,327 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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