Khamenei's official X account maintains a historically low posting cadence, issuing formal statements and messages on an irregular basis rather than daily updates, which aligns with trader consensus favoring fewer than five posts during the June 16–23 window. Recent developments, including the leadership transition following 2025 strikes and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession, have not generated a surge in official output from the primary account, as routine diplomatic or domestic messaging remains limited amid ongoing regional stabilization efforts. This pattern reflects standard institutional communication practices where high-volume activity occurs mainly during acute crises, leaving the sub-five outcome as the dominant implied probability based on observed weekly baselines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日10-14 100.0%
＜5 <1%
5-9 <1%
15-19 <1%
$23,122 Vol.
$23,122 Vol.
2026/06/23
＜5
いいえ
5-9
No
10-14
Yes
15-19
No
20-24
No
25-29
No
30-34
No
35-39
No
40-44
No
45-49
No
50〜54
いいえ
55〜59
いいえ
60件以上
いいえ
10-14 100.0%
＜5 <1%
5-9 <1%
15-19 <1%
$23,122 Vol.
$23,122 Vol.
2026/06/23
＜5
$8,382 Vol.
いいえ
5-9
$2,963 Vol.
No
10-14
$1,633 Vol.
Yes
15-19
$1,645 Vol.
No
20-24
$1,328 Vol.
No
25-29
$761 Vol.
No
30-34
$874 Vol.
No
35-39
$843 Vol.
No
40-44
$1,010 Vol.
No
45-49
$869 Vol.
No
50〜54
$885 Vol.
いいえ
55〜59
$720 Vol.
いいえ
60件以上
$1,207 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 16, 12:00 PM ET and June 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Khamenei's official X account maintains a historically low posting cadence, issuing formal statements and messages on an irregular basis rather than daily updates, which aligns with trader consensus favoring fewer than five posts during the June 16–23 window. Recent developments, including the leadership transition following 2025 strikes and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession, have not generated a surge in official output from the primary account, as routine diplomatic or domestic messaging remains limited amid ongoing regional stabilization efforts. This pattern reflects standard institutional communication practices where high-volume activity occurs mainly during acute crises, leaving the sub-five outcome as the dominant implied probability based on observed weekly baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 16, 12:00 PM ET and June 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Jun 13, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
音量
$23,122終了日
2026/06/23マーケット開始日
Jun 13, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 16, 12:00 PM ET and June 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Khamenei's official X account maintains a historically low posting cadence, issuing formal statements and messages on an irregular basis rather than daily updates, which aligns with trader consensus favoring fewer than five posts during the June 16–23 window. Recent developments, including the leadership transition following 2025 strikes and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession, have not generated a surge in official output from the primary account, as routine diplomatic or domestic messaging remains limited amid ongoing regional stabilization efforts. This pattern reflects standard institutional communication practices where high-volume activity occurs mainly during acute crises, leaving the sub-five outcome as the dominant implied probability based on observed weekly baselines.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 16, 12:00 PM ET and June 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$23,122終了日
2026/06/23マーケット開始日
Jun 13, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Khamenei's official X account maintains a historically low posting cadence, issuing formal statements and messages on an irregular basis rather than daily updates, which aligns with trader consensus favoring fewer than five posts during the June 16–23 window. Recent developments, including the leadership transition following 2025 strikes and Mojtaba Khamenei's succession, have not generated a surge in official output from the primary account, as routine diplomatic or domestic messaging remains limited amid ongoing regional stabilization efforts. This pattern reflects standard institutional communication practices where high-volume activity occurs mainly during acute crises, leaving the sub-five outcome as the dominant implied probability based on observed weekly baselines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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