US-brokered trilateral talks since June 2026 have produced a framework agreement for phased Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon in exchange for verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment in pilot zones, yet implementation remains stalled over sequencing disputes. Recent military activity, including IDF operations through September 2026 that destroyed Hezbollah infrastructure along the Ali al-Taher ridge, has kept pressure on the group while sporadic incidents continue. Reports as of early October indicate a ceasefire has taken effect with initial returns of displaced civilians and a 60-day withdrawal timeline under US-French guarantees, though Hezbollah retains significant capabilities and both sides maintain conditions for resuming operations. Upcoming diplomatic rounds, including potential talks in Florida, and compliance monitoring will shape whether hostilities pause long enough to meet market resolution criteria.