Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,149,470 Vol.
2026/06/26
6月26日
いいえ
6月27日
はい
6月28日
いいえ
6月29日
いいえ
6月30日
いいえ
7月1日
いいえ
7月2日
いいえ
7月3日
いいえ
7月4日
いいえ
7月5日
いいえ
7月6日
いいえ
7月7日
はい
7月8日
いいえ
7月9日
いいえ
July 10
No
July 11
No
July 12
Yes
July 13
No
July 14
Yes
July 15
No
July 16
No
July 17
No
7月19日
いいえ
7月20日
はい
7月21日
いいえ
7月22日
いいえ
7月23日
いいえ
7月24日
いいえ
7月25日
いいえ
7月26日
いいえ
7月27日
いいえ
7月28日
いいえ
7月29日
いいえ
7月30日
いいえ
7月31日
いいえ
$1,149,470 Vol.
6月26日
$53,305 Vol.
いいえ
6月27日
$76,209 Vol.
はい
6月28日
$41,622 Vol.
いいえ
6月29日
$70,230 Vol.
いいえ
6月30日
$63,002 Vol.
いいえ
7月1日
$37,538 Vol.
いいえ
7月2日
$32,646 Vol.
いいえ
7月3日
$45,220 Vol.
いいえ
7月4日
$137,937 Vol.
いいえ
7月5日
$42,058 Vol.
いいえ
7月6日
$76,320 Vol.
いいえ
7月7日
$71,766 Vol.
はい
7月8日
$71,683 Vol.
いいえ
7月9日
$37,515 Vol.
いいえ
July 10
$13,861 Vol.
No
July 11
$31,605 Vol.
No
July 12
$41,177 Vol.
Yes
July 13
$52,730 Vol.
No
July 14
$23,388 Vol.
Yes
July 15
$6,745 Vol.
No
July 16
$16,743 Vol.
No
July 17
$27,103 Vol.
No
7月19日
$14,349 Vol.
いいえ
7月20日
$11,826 Vol.
はい
7月21日
$21,471 Vol.
いいえ
7月22日
$787 Vol.
いいえ
7月23日
$14,082 Vol.
いいえ
7月24日
$1,495 Vol.
いいえ
7月25日
$1,089 Vol.
いいえ
7月26日
$225 Vol.
いいえ
7月27日
$20 Vol.
いいえ
7月28日
$937 Vol.
いいえ
7月29日
$1,687 Vol.
いいえ
7月30日
$770 Vol.
いいえ
7月31日
$10,330 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
マーケット開始日： Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
音量
$1,149,470終了日
2026/07/09マーケット開始日
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
音量
$1,149,470終了日
2026/07/09マーケット開始日
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Iranian forces have maintained pressure on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since declaring it closed in March 2026, with repeated threats and reported strikes reducing tanker traffic to multi-month lows. In late July 2026, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced and began enforcing a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabia via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, claiming missile and drone strikes on at least two Saudi oil tankers. These actions expand disruption risks across two critical chokepoints, directly tying proxy operations to broader U.S.-Iran hostilities and affecting global energy flows. Trader assessments hinge on continued enforcement of these restrictions versus any de-escalation through diplomacy or military responses, with resolution likely tied to verifiable successful interdictions or sustained blockades in the coming weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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