Iran’s position that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable red line has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by September 30. Multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran talks since 2025, including those mediated by Oman and held in Geneva and Islamabad, have repeatedly stalled over this issue, with U.S. proposals for long-term moratoriums, facility dismantlement, or off-site enrichment rejected by Tehran. Recent IAEA reporting on Iran’s growing stockpiles of enriched material and limited inspector access further underscores the absence of verifiable steps toward zero enrichment. While military strikes and sanctions have increased pressure, they have not produced the required diplomatic concession. A sudden shift in Iranian leadership priorities or major external inducements could theoretically reopen the possibility before the deadline, though current trajectories make such an outcome remote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$62,740 Vol.
$62,740 Vol.
2026/09/30
はい
2% 確率
$62,740 Vol.
$62,740 Vol.
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s position that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable red line has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by September 30. Multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran talks since 2025, including those mediated by Oman and held in Geneva and Islamabad, have repeatedly stalled over this issue, with U.S. proposals for long-term moratoriums, facility dismantlement, or off-site enrichment rejected by Tehran. Recent IAEA reporting on Iran’s growing stockpiles of enriched material and limited inspector access further underscores the absence of verifiable steps toward zero enrichment. While military strikes and sanctions have increased pressure, they have not produced the required diplomatic concession. A sudden shift in Iranian leadership priorities or major external inducements could theoretically reopen the possibility before the deadline, though current trajectories make such an outcome remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
音量
$62,740終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s position that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable red line has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by September 30. Multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran talks since 2025, including those mediated by Oman and held in Geneva and Islamabad, have repeatedly stalled over this issue, with U.S. proposals for long-term moratoriums, facility dismantlement, or off-site enrichment rejected by Tehran. Recent IAEA reporting on Iran’s growing stockpiles of enriched material and limited inspector access further underscores the absence of verifiable steps toward zero enrichment. While military strikes and sanctions have increased pressure, they have not produced the required diplomatic concession. A sudden shift in Iranian leadership priorities or major external inducements could theoretically reopen the possibility before the deadline, though current trajectories make such an outcome remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$62,740終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s position that domestic uranium enrichment remains a non-negotiable red line has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by September 30. Multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran talks since 2025, including those mediated by Oman and held in Geneva and Islamabad, have repeatedly stalled over this issue, with U.S. proposals for long-term moratoriums, facility dismantlement, or off-site enrichment rejected by Tehran. Recent IAEA reporting on Iran’s growing stockpiles of enriched material and limited inspector access further underscores the absence of verifiable steps toward zero enrichment. While military strikes and sanctions have increased pressure, they have not produced the required diplomatic concession. A sudden shift in Iranian leadership priorities or major external inducements could theoretically reopen the possibility before the deadline, though current trajectories make such an outcome remote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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