Persistent regional conflict and the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, with daily transits averaging just 3–5 vessels in mid-September amid extreme war-risk insurance premiums and selective access. This environment produced weekly totals firmly in the low-20s range, aligning with the market’s 98.7% implied probability for 20-24 ships during the week of September 14. Oil export volumes remain a fraction of pre-crisis norms near 20 million barrels per day, as operators reroute or idle vessels rather than absorb elevated costs and security risks. A credible diplomatic breakthrough, such as eased sanctions or a verified ceasefire allowing sustained southern-corridor access, represents the principal scenario that could lift volumes above this band.