North Carolina's congressional map, redrawn by Republicans in October 2025, targets the sole competitive Democratic seat by shifting conservative counties into the 1st District and rendering incumbent Don Davis more vulnerable while leaving the other three Democratic holds relatively secure. This setup underpins expectations of a 10-4 or similar Republican advantage, yet national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats by several points, strong candidate recruitment, and the open or highly competitive 11th District create pathways for modest Democratic gains. Trader pricing across 4, 5, and 6+ outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the environment will enable net holds plus flips in swing areas or allow the map to limit Democrats to three or four seats, with late-cycle turnout and any additional competitive races serving as the main variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5 33%
6以上 23.7%
4 24%
3 15%
$11,621 Vol.
$11,621 Vol.
2026/11/02
3未満
1%
3
15%
4
24%
5
33%
6以上
24%
5 33%
6以上 23.7%
4 24%
3 15%
$11,621 Vol.
$11,621 Vol.
2026/11/02
3未満
$837 Vol.
1%
3
$1,990 Vol.
15%
4
$2,412 Vol.
24%
5
$4,838 Vol.
33%
6以上
$1,545 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.North Carolina's congressional map, redrawn by Republicans in October 2025, targets the sole competitive Democratic seat by shifting conservative counties into the 1st District and rendering incumbent Don Davis more vulnerable while leaving the other three Democratic holds relatively secure. This setup underpins expectations of a 10-4 or similar Republican advantage, yet national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats by several points, strong candidate recruitment, and the open or highly competitive 11th District create pathways for modest Democratic gains. Trader pricing across 4, 5, and 6+ outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the environment will enable net holds plus flips in swing areas or allow the map to limit Democrats to three or four seats, with late-cycle turnout and any additional competitive races serving as the main variables.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
音量
$11,621終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.North Carolina's congressional map, redrawn by Republicans in October 2025, targets the sole competitive Democratic seat by shifting conservative counties into the 1st District and rendering incumbent Don Davis more vulnerable while leaving the other three Democratic holds relatively secure. This setup underpins expectations of a 10-4 or similar Republican advantage, yet national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats by several points, strong candidate recruitment, and the open or highly competitive 11th District create pathways for modest Democratic gains. Trader pricing across 4, 5, and 6+ outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the environment will enable net holds plus flips in swing areas or allow the map to limit Democrats to three or four seats, with late-cycle turnout and any additional competitive races serving as the main variables.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$11,621終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...North Carolina's congressional map, redrawn by Republicans in October 2025, targets the sole competitive Democratic seat by shifting conservative counties into the 1st District and rendering incumbent Don Davis more vulnerable while leaving the other three Democratic holds relatively secure. This setup underpins expectations of a 10-4 or similar Republican advantage, yet national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats by several points, strong candidate recruitment, and the open or highly competitive 11th District create pathways for modest Democratic gains. Trader pricing across 4, 5, and 6+ outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the environment will enable net holds plus flips in swing areas or allow the map to limit Democrats to three or four seats, with late-cycle turnout and any additional competitive races serving as the main variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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