Democrats currently hold nine of New Jersey’s 12 House seats following the 2024 cycle and a 2026 special election victory in the 11th district. The sole competitive contest centers on the 7th district, where Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett in a seat Trump carried by one point in 2024. Kean’s extended medical absence from Congress since March, attributed to depression, has limited his visibility and fundraising momentum heading into the general election. Forecasters rate the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, while most other districts remain solid or likely for their current party holders. National midterm dynamics, including historical patterns favoring the opposition party, reinforce expectations that Democrats will net one seat in the state. Traders price a 10-seat outcome highest, reflecting the probability of flipping the 7th while holding the rest, with smaller probabilities assigned to no change or additional gains under a broader wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日10 64%
9 18%
11以上 17%
8未満 <1%
新規
新規
2026/11/02
8未満
1%
8
1%
9
18%
10
64%
11以上
17%
10 64%
9 18%
11以上 17%
8未満 <1%
新規
新規
2026/11/02
8未満
$206 Vol.
1%
8
$134 Vol.
1%
9
$828 Vol.
18%
10
$535 Vol.
64%
11以上
$228 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold nine of New Jersey’s 12 House seats following the 2024 cycle and a 2026 special election victory in the 11th district. The sole competitive contest centers on the 7th district, where Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett in a seat Trump carried by one point in 2024. Kean’s extended medical absence from Congress since March, attributed to depression, has limited his visibility and fundraising momentum heading into the general election. Forecasters rate the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, while most other districts remain solid or likely for their current party holders. National midterm dynamics, including historical patterns favoring the opposition party, reinforce expectations that Democrats will net one seat in the state. Traders price a 10-seat outcome highest, reflecting the probability of flipping the 7th while holding the rest, with smaller probabilities assigned to no change or additional gains under a broader wave.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 10:06 AM ET
音量
$1,931終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:06 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold nine of New Jersey’s 12 House seats following the 2024 cycle and a 2026 special election victory in the 11th district. The sole competitive contest centers on the 7th district, where Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett in a seat Trump carried by one point in 2024. Kean’s extended medical absence from Congress since March, attributed to depression, has limited his visibility and fundraising momentum heading into the general election. Forecasters rate the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, while most other districts remain solid or likely for their current party holders. National midterm dynamics, including historical patterns favoring the opposition party, reinforce expectations that Democrats will net one seat in the state. Traders price a 10-seat outcome highest, reflecting the probability of flipping the 7th while holding the rest, with smaller probabilities assigned to no change or additional gains under a broader wave.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,931終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:06 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Democrats currently hold nine of New Jersey’s 12 House seats following the 2024 cycle and a 2026 special election victory in the 11th district. The sole competitive contest centers on the 7th district, where Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett in a seat Trump carried by one point in 2024. Kean’s extended medical absence from Congress since March, attributed to depression, has limited his visibility and fundraising momentum heading into the general election. Forecasters rate the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, while most other districts remain solid or likely for their current party holders. National midterm dynamics, including historical patterns favoring the opposition party, reinforce expectations that Democrats will net one seat in the state. Traders price a 10-seat outcome highest, reflecting the probability of flipping the 7th while holding the rest, with smaller probabilities assigned to no change or additional gains under a broader wave.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問