Nevada’s four congressional districts feature three Democratic-held seats rated as likely or lean Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, alongside one open Republican seat in the 2nd district following incumbent Mark Amodei’s retirement. Traders assign the highest probability to Democrats retaining exactly three seats because the open northern Nevada district remains rated safe or likely Republican despite multiple Democratic primary contenders and fundraising efforts. Recent June primaries confirmed strong Democratic incumbents Dina Titus, Susie Lee, and Steven Horsford advancing in their districts with comfortable margins, while the 2nd district contest shows limited polling and structural challenges for a flip. The modest probability on four seats reflects the competitive nature of Nevada’s battleground map, whereas lower outcomes for two or fewer seats would require unexpected shifts in the more secure Democratic districts.