California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025, forms the central driver of trader positioning around 47–48 Democratic seats. The lines, drawn to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, shift several Central Valley, Sacramento-area, and San Diego districts toward Democrats while preserving most existing advantages. June 2026 primaries clarified matchups and confirmed Democratic advances in targeted seats, including the open 1st District and reconfigured districts involving former Republican-held territory. With only a handful of competitive races remaining under the top-two system, the map's projected net gain of three to five seats relative to the current 43–9 split aligns closely with the 70.5% probability on 48 and 18% on 47. Midterm dynamics and candidate quality in the remaining battlegrounds, such as those involving Valadao and the Issa retirement seat, account for the narrower 49+ and lower outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日48 71%
47 18%
49以上 7.6%
46 3.3%
$18,209 Vol.
$18,209 Vol.
2026/11/02
43未満
1%
43
<1%
44
1%
45
1%
46
3%
47
18%
48
71%
49以上
8%
48 71%
47 18%
49以上 7.6%
46 3.3%
$18,209 Vol.
$18,209 Vol.
2026/11/02
43未満
$361 Vol.
1%
43
$354 Vol.
<1%
44
$345 Vol.
1%
45
$381 Vol.
1%
46
$785 Vol.
3%
47
$4,828 Vol.
18%
48
$10,546 Vol.
71%
49以上
$610 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025, forms the central driver of trader positioning around 47–48 Democratic seats. The lines, drawn to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, shift several Central Valley, Sacramento-area, and San Diego districts toward Democrats while preserving most existing advantages. June 2026 primaries clarified matchups and confirmed Democratic advances in targeted seats, including the open 1st District and reconfigured districts involving former Republican-held territory. With only a handful of competitive races remaining under the top-two system, the map's projected net gain of three to five seats relative to the current 43–9 split aligns closely with the 70.5% probability on 48 and 18% on 47. Midterm dynamics and candidate quality in the remaining battlegrounds, such as those involving Valadao and the Issa retirement seat, account for the narrower 49+ and lower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
音量
$18,209終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025, forms the central driver of trader positioning around 47–48 Democratic seats. The lines, drawn to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, shift several Central Valley, Sacramento-area, and San Diego districts toward Democrats while preserving most existing advantages. June 2026 primaries clarified matchups and confirmed Democratic advances in targeted seats, including the open 1st District and reconfigured districts involving former Republican-held territory. With only a handful of competitive races remaining under the top-two system, the map's projected net gain of three to five seats relative to the current 43–9 split aligns closely with the 70.5% probability on 48 and 18% on 47. Midterm dynamics and candidate quality in the remaining battlegrounds, such as those involving Valadao and the Issa retirement seat, account for the narrower 49+ and lower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$18,209終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...California's new congressional map, enacted via Proposition 50 in November 2025, forms the central driver of trader positioning around 47–48 Democratic seats. The lines, drawn to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere, shift several Central Valley, Sacramento-area, and San Diego districts toward Democrats while preserving most existing advantages. June 2026 primaries clarified matchups and confirmed Democratic advances in targeted seats, including the open 1st District and reconfigured districts involving former Republican-held territory. With only a handful of competitive races remaining under the top-two system, the map's projected net gain of three to five seats relative to the current 43–9 split aligns closely with the 70.5% probability on 48 and 18% on 47. Midterm dynamics and candidate quality in the remaining battlegrounds, such as those involving Valadao and the Issa retirement seat, account for the narrower 49+ and lower outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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