**Recent escalation in tensions with Iran has prompted President Trump’s scheduled primetime address to the nation on Thursday evening, July 16, creating uncertainty over its duration among traders.** The announcement on Truth Social, timed amid diplomatic and military developments, leaves open whether the remarks will focus on a narrow update or broader policy context, keeping probabilities for 20-25 minutes (49%) and shorter bins (43.5%) closely matched. Historical patterns for such crisis-driven national addresses show wide variation, from concise statements to more extended explanations, while past Trump primetime speeches demonstrate flexibility in length depending on the moment’s demands. Factors such as confirmation of the exact format, any pre-speech briefings, or shifts in the underlying geopolitical situation could widen the gap by clarifying whether brevity or substance is prioritized. Resolution hinges on the live delivery length once the address begins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25～30分 96.5%
5分未満 <1%
5〜10分 <1%
10～15分 <1%
$45,076 Vol.
$45,076 Vol.
2026/07/17
5分未満
いいえ
5〜10分
いいえ
10～15分
いいえ
15〜20分
いいえ
20〜25分
いいえ
25～30分
はい
30分以上
いいえ
25～30分 96.5%
5分未満 <1%
5〜10分 <1%
10～15分 <1%
$45,076 Vol.
$45,076 Vol.
2026/07/17
5分未満
$3,682 Vol.
いいえ
5〜10分
$3,028 Vol.
いいえ
10～15分
$3,640 Vol.
いいえ
15〜20分
$5,378 Vol.
いいえ
20〜25分
$6,749 Vol.
いいえ
25～30分
$10,534 Vol.
はい
30分以上
$12,065 Vol.
いいえ
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Recent escalation in tensions with Iran has prompted President Trump’s scheduled primetime address to the nation on Thursday evening, July 16, creating uncertainty over its duration among traders.** The announcement on Truth Social, timed amid diplomatic and military developments, leaves open whether the remarks will focus on a narrow update or broader policy context, keeping probabilities for 20-25 minutes (49%) and shorter bins (43.5%) closely matched. Historical patterns for such crisis-driven national addresses show wide variation, from concise statements to more extended explanations, while past Trump primetime speeches demonstrate flexibility in length depending on the moment’s demands. Factors such as confirmation of the exact format, any pre-speech briefings, or shifts in the underlying geopolitical situation could widen the gap by clarifying whether brevity or substance is prioritized. Resolution hinges on the live delivery length once the address begins.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 13, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
音量
$45,076終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 13, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Recent escalation in tensions with Iran has prompted President Trump’s scheduled primetime address to the nation on Thursday evening, July 16, creating uncertainty over its duration among traders.** The announcement on Truth Social, timed amid diplomatic and military developments, leaves open whether the remarks will focus on a narrow update or broader policy context, keeping probabilities for 20-25 minutes (49%) and shorter bins (43.5%) closely matched. Historical patterns for such crisis-driven national addresses show wide variation, from concise statements to more extended explanations, while past Trump primetime speeches demonstrate flexibility in length depending on the moment’s demands. Factors such as confirmation of the exact format, any pre-speech briefings, or shifts in the underlying geopolitical situation could widen the gap by clarifying whether brevity or substance is prioritized. Resolution hinges on the live delivery length once the address begins.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a Speech to the Nation on July 16, 2026 at 9PM ET (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116914147668764804).
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Speech to the Nation.
The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Speech to the Nation until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the start of Trump’s Speech to the Nation is cancelled or delayed beyond July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
音量
$45,076終了日
2026/07/16マーケット開始日
Jul 13, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
**Recent escalation in tensions with Iran has prompted President Trump’s scheduled primetime address to the nation on Thursday evening, July 16, creating uncertainty over its duration among traders.** The announcement on Truth Social, timed amid diplomatic and military developments, leaves open whether the remarks will focus on a narrow update or broader policy context, keeping probabilities for 20-25 minutes (49%) and shorter bins (43.5%) closely matched. Historical patterns for such crisis-driven national addresses show wide variation, from concise statements to more extended explanations, while past Trump primetime speeches demonstrate flexibility in length depending on the moment’s demands. Factors such as confirmation of the exact format, any pre-speech briefings, or shifts in the underlying geopolitical situation could widen the gap by clarifying whether brevity or substance is prioritized. Resolution hinges on the live delivery length once the address begins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問