Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked oil tankers, including the Amzan and NCC Ghazal in late July and August 2026, combined with the July 20 naval blockade declaration targeting Saudi Red Sea traffic, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting. These incidents have reduced tanker transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal by roughly 40% from pre-crisis baselines, pushing up freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and rerouting costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Saudi oil exports of 4–5 million barrels per day via Red Sea pipelines face ongoing supply-chain pressure, contributing to energy-market volatility. Traders price in persistent disruption risk through the August 31 resolution window amid limited naval escorts and regional tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$40,856 Vol.
2026/08/31
August 31
Yes
September 15
Yes
September 30
Yes
$40,856 Vol.
August 31
$25,975 Vol.
Yes
September 15
$6,257 Vol.
Yes
September 30
$8,624 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked oil tankers, including the Amzan and NCC Ghazal in late July and August 2026, combined with the July 20 naval blockade declaration targeting Saudi Red Sea traffic, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting. These incidents have reduced tanker transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal by roughly 40% from pre-crisis baselines, pushing up freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and rerouting costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Saudi oil exports of 4–5 million barrels per day via Red Sea pipelines face ongoing supply-chain pressure, contributing to energy-market volatility. Traders price in persistent disruption risk through the August 31 resolution window amid limited naval escorts and regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
音量
$40,856終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 6:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked oil tankers, including the Amzan and NCC Ghazal in late July and August 2026, combined with the July 20 naval blockade declaration targeting Saudi Red Sea traffic, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting. These incidents have reduced tanker transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal by roughly 40% from pre-crisis baselines, pushing up freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and rerouting costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Saudi oil exports of 4–5 million barrels per day via Red Sea pipelines face ongoing supply-chain pressure, contributing to energy-market volatility. Traders price in persistent disruption risk through the August 31 resolution window amid limited naval escorts and regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
音量
$40,856終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 6:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: Yes
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: Yes
Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked oil tankers, including the Amzan and NCC Ghazal in late July and August 2026, combined with the July 20 naval blockade declaration targeting Saudi Red Sea traffic, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting. These incidents have reduced tanker transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal by roughly 40% from pre-crisis baselines, pushing up freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and rerouting costs around the Cape of Good Hope. Saudi oil exports of 4–5 million barrels per day via Red Sea pipelines face ongoing supply-chain pressure, contributing to energy-market volatility. Traders price in persistent disruption risk through the August 31 resolution window amid limited naval escorts and regional tensions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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