Escalating Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, including reported strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, remain the primary driver of market-implied odds for any seizure-related resolution. Recent Yemeni government counteroffensives backed by Saudi air support have recaptured key coastal positions near the strait as of early October 2026, temporarily easing Houthi control after their September gains at Mokha and Perim Island, yet Houthi vows of continued strikes on Aramco facilities and vessels sustain supply disruption risks. Brent crude futures hover near $106 per barrel amid these tensions, while VLCC freight rates have surged over eightfold year-over-year due to rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and elevated war-risk insurance. Reduced daily transits through the strait—down to single digits on some days—highlight the direct link between military developments and energy logistics costs, with Saudi export volumes and global tanker availability as key swing factors ahead of further coalition operations.