Recent Houthi missile strikes on Aden’s presidential palace on October 15, killing five and wounding 16, highlight intensified fighting but have not shifted ground control, keeping Polymarket-implied odds for entry by October 31 at just 4% and by December 31 at 26%. Saudi-backed government forces continue Operation Dawn of Yemen with air support, targeting Houthi positions near the Bab al-Mandeb strait and reversing some September gains, while the interim administration reaffirms operations from Aden. These dynamics sustain elevated Red Sea shipping risks, with freight rates and insurance premiums remaining elevated and crude flows through the strait still well below pre-escalation levels. Key near-term catalysts include further coalition strikes, Houthi retaliation on Saudi infrastructure, and any verified territorial shifts that could alter trader consensus on timelines.