Trader consensus on a 16°C high for Wellington on September 13 reflects real-time meteorological observations and model consensus showing peak temperatures reaching exactly that level during afternoon hours. Southerly to southwesterly flow, combined with partly cloudy conditions and light winds, limited daytime heating while preventing significant cooling or warming anomalies. Official forecasts from sources such as MetService-aligned models and international ensembles consistently projected maxima near 15–17°C, aligning with the market-implied outcome. A shift in wind direction to stronger northerlies or unexpected cloud cover clearing earlier could have pushed readings higher, but current data and verification trends locked in the 16°C threshold with minimal uncertainty remaining.