Official meteorological forecasts for Wellington on May 20 show a maximum air temperature of 15°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light southerly winds, aligning with the market’s near-certain 15°C outcome. This consensus draws from NIWA and MetService model runs that incorporate current sea-surface temperatures around 13–14°C and typical autumnal radiative cooling patterns for the region. Historical climatology places average May highs near 14.5°C, with only modest day-to-day variability once a stable airmass is established. The narrow 0.1% probabilities assigned to 16°C or higher reflect the low likelihood of unexpected warming from a late wind shift or reduced cloud cover. Any revision would require a significant, rapid change in the observed pressure gradient or an unforecasted warm advection event before the daily maximum is recorded.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月20日のウェリントンの最高気温は?
15°C 100.0%
9℃以下 <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$21,563 Vol.
$21,563 Vol.
9℃以下
いいえ
10°C
いいえ
11°C
いいえ
12°C
いいえ
13°C
いいえ
14℃
いいえ
15°C
はい
16℃
いいえ
17°C
いいえ
18℃
いいえ
19℃以上
いいえ
15°C 100.0%
9℃以下 <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$21,563 Vol.
$21,563 Vol.
9℃以下
いいえ
10°C
いいえ
11°C
いいえ
12°C
いいえ
13°C
いいえ
14℃
いいえ
15°C
はい
16℃
いいえ
17°C
いいえ
18℃
いいえ
19℃以上
いいえ
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Official meteorological forecasts for Wellington on May 20 show a maximum air temperature of 15°C under stable high-pressure conditions and light southerly winds, aligning with the market’s near-certain 15°C outcome. This consensus draws from NIWA and MetService model runs that incorporate current sea-surface temperatures around 13–14°C and typical autumnal radiative cooling patterns for the region. Historical climatology places average May highs near 14.5°C, with only modest day-to-day variability once a stable airmass is established. The narrow 0.1% probabilities assigned to 16°C or higher reflect the low likelihood of unexpected warming from a late wind shift or reduced cloud cover. Any revision would require a significant, rapid change in the observed pressure gradient or an unforecasted warm advection event before the daily maximum is recorded.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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