**Jared Moskowitz secured a decisive victory in the August 18, 2026, FL-25 Democratic primary, winning 63.5% to Oliver Larkin’s 36.5% for a margin exceeding 27 points.** Redistricting under Governor Ron DeSantis shifted the coastal district spanning parts of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties into Republican-leaning territory (Trump +9 in 2024), prompting Democratic primary voters to consolidate behind the better-known, better-funded incumbent with proven general-election viability. Polling from June showed Moskowitz leading by 32 points, backed by superior fundraising, higher name recognition, and emphasis on affordability and electability over Larkin’s progressive platform as a Democratic Socialists of America-aligned challenger. Traders priced in this outcome based on these structural and campaign dynamics well before primary day, with the actual results aligning closely to pre-election surveys. Late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could have narrowed the margin modestly, but no credible factors emerged to alter the wide lead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モスコウィッツ25％以上 100.0%
モスコウィッツ 20〜25％ <1%
モスコウィッツ 15〜20% <1%
モスコウィッツ 10〜15％ <1%
$55,600 Vol.
$55,600 Vol.
2026/08/18
モスコウィッツ25％以上
はい
モスコウィッツ 20〜25％
いいえ
モスコウィッツ 15〜20%
いいえ
モスコウィッツ 10〜15％
いいえ
モスコウィッツ 5～10％
いいえ
モスコウィッツ 5％未満
いいえ
ラーキン <5%
いいえ
ラーキン 5〜10％
いいえ
ラーキン 10～15％
いいえ
ラーキン 15〜20％
いいえ
ラーキン20～25%
いいえ
ラーキン25％以上
いいえ
モスコウィッツ25％以上 100.0%
モスコウィッツ 20〜25％ <1%
モスコウィッツ 15〜20% <1%
モスコウィッツ 10〜15％ <1%
$55,600 Vol.
$55,600 Vol.
2026/08/18
モスコウィッツ25％以上
$47,863 Vol.
はい
モスコウィッツ 20〜25％
$4,140 Vol.
いいえ
モスコウィッツ 15〜20%
$613 Vol.
いいえ
モスコウィッツ 10〜15％
$418 Vol.
いいえ
モスコウィッツ 5～10％
$377 Vol.
いいえ
モスコウィッツ 5％未満
$430 Vol.
いいえ
ラーキン <5%
$439 Vol.
いいえ
ラーキン 5〜10％
$230 Vol.
いいえ
ラーキン 10～15％
$285 Vol.
いいえ
ラーキン 15〜20％
$247 Vol.
いいえ
ラーキン20～25%
$278 Vol.
いいえ
ラーキン25％以上
$280 Vol.
いいえ
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Jared Moskowitz secured a decisive victory in the August 18, 2026, FL-25 Democratic primary, winning 63.5% to Oliver Larkin’s 36.5% for a margin exceeding 27 points.**
Redistricting under Governor Ron DeSantis shifted the coastal district spanning parts of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties into Republican-leaning territory (Trump +9 in 2024), prompting Democratic primary voters to consolidate behind the better-known, better-funded incumbent with proven general-election viability. Polling from June showed Moskowitz leading by 32 points, backed by superior fundraising, higher name recognition, and emphasis on affordability and electability over Larkin’s progressive platform as a Democratic Socialists of America-aligned challenger. Traders priced in this outcome based on these structural and campaign dynamics well before primary day, with the actual results aligning closely to pre-election surveys. Late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could have narrowed the margin modestly, but no credible factors emerged to alter the wide lead.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
音量
$55,600終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**Jared Moskowitz secured a decisive victory in the August 18, 2026, FL-25 Democratic primary, winning 63.5% to Oliver Larkin’s 36.5% for a margin exceeding 27 points.**
Redistricting under Governor Ron DeSantis shifted the coastal district spanning parts of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties into Republican-leaning territory (Trump +9 in 2024), prompting Democratic primary voters to consolidate behind the better-known, better-funded incumbent with proven general-election viability. Polling from June showed Moskowitz leading by 32 points, backed by superior fundraising, higher name recognition, and emphasis on affordability and electability over Larkin’s progressive platform as a Democratic Socialists of America-aligned challenger. Traders priced in this outcome based on these structural and campaign dynamics well before primary day, with the actual results aligning closely to pre-election surveys. Late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could have narrowed the margin modestly, but no credible factors emerged to alter the wide lead.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$55,600終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
**Jared Moskowitz secured a decisive victory in the August 18, 2026, FL-25 Democratic primary, winning 63.5% to Oliver Larkin’s 36.5% for a margin exceeding 27 points.** Redistricting under Governor Ron DeSantis shifted the coastal district spanning parts of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties into Republican-leaning territory (Trump +9 in 2024), prompting Democratic primary voters to consolidate behind the better-known, better-funded incumbent with proven general-election viability. Polling from June showed Moskowitz leading by 32 points, backed by superior fundraising, higher name recognition, and emphasis on affordability and electability over Larkin’s progressive platform as a Democratic Socialists of America-aligned challenger. Traders priced in this outcome based on these structural and campaign dynamics well before primary day, with the actual results aligning closely to pre-election surveys. Late developments such as additional endorsements or turnout shifts could have narrowed the margin modestly, but no credible factors emerged to alter the wide lead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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