**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District ahead of the November 3, 2026, open primary.** The solidly Democratic seat, rated Safe or Solid Democratic by major forecasters, features a modest field that includes Democratic challenger Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and one unaffiliated candidate. Carter’s prior 60%+ performance in the district and the limited, uncoordinated opposition reduce the likelihood of vote fragmentation that would force a December 12 runoff. Louisiana’s majority-vote system requires over 50% for an outright win; trader consensus at 72.5% for an outright winner aligns with the district’s partisan lean, Carter’s institutional support, and historical outcomes in comparable safe Democratic House races where opposition remains fragmented. No late-cycle developments have emerged to consolidate anti-incumbent sentiment or heighten runoff risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
72% 確率
新規
新規
2026/11/03
はい
72% 確率
新規
新規
2026/11/03
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District ahead of the November 3, 2026, open primary.** The solidly Democratic seat, rated Safe or Solid Democratic by major forecasters, features a modest field that includes Democratic challenger Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and one unaffiliated candidate. Carter’s prior 60%+ performance in the district and the limited, uncoordinated opposition reduce the likelihood of vote fragmentation that would force a December 12 runoff. Louisiana’s majority-vote system requires over 50% for an outright win; trader consensus at 72.5% for an outright winner aligns with the district’s partisan lean, Carter’s institutional support, and historical outcomes in comparable safe Democratic House races where opposition remains fragmented. No late-cycle developments have emerged to consolidate anti-incumbent sentiment or heighten runoff risk.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ET
音量
$409終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District ahead of the November 3, 2026, open primary.** The solidly Democratic seat, rated Safe or Solid Democratic by major forecasters, features a modest field that includes Democratic challenger Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and one unaffiliated candidate. Carter’s prior 60%+ performance in the district and the limited, uncoordinated opposition reduce the likelihood of vote fragmentation that would force a December 12 runoff. Louisiana’s majority-vote system requires over 50% for an outright win; trader consensus at 72.5% for an outright winner aligns with the district’s partisan lean, Carter’s institutional support, and historical outcomes in comparable safe Democratic House races where opposition remains fragmented. No late-cycle developments have emerged to consolidate anti-incumbent sentiment or heighten runoff risk.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-02 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-02 House election.
音量
$409終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter holds a commanding position in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District ahead of the November 3, 2026, open primary.** The solidly Democratic seat, rated Safe or Solid Democratic by major forecasters, features a modest field that includes Democratic challenger Renada Collins, Republican Peter Williams, Libertarian Lisa Ballay, and one unaffiliated candidate. Carter’s prior 60%+ performance in the district and the limited, uncoordinated opposition reduce the likelihood of vote fragmentation that would force a December 12 runoff. Louisiana’s majority-vote system requires over 50% for an outright win; trader consensus at 72.5% for an outright winner aligns with the district’s partisan lean, Carter’s institutional support, and historical outcomes in comparable safe Democratic House races where opposition remains fragmented. No late-cycle developments have emerged to consolidate anti-incumbent sentiment or heighten runoff risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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