Recent legislative action under Republican control, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in 2025, made prior individual tax provisions permanent without reducing the top long-term capital gains rate, which remains at 23.8%. In 2026, White House officials have discussed targeted relief such as indexing gains to inflation or expanding the primary residence exclusion ahead of midterms, with some bipartisan bills introduced on home sales. However, these proposals remain in committee with limited floor time before November, and no rate reduction has advanced. Traders assign an 87% probability to no broad federal cut by year-end, reflecting the emphasis on other fiscal priorities, procedural constraints in Congress, and the short remaining legislative calendar.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
13% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
13% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent legislative action under Republican control, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in 2025, made prior individual tax provisions permanent without reducing the top long-term capital gains rate, which remains at 23.8%. In 2026, White House officials have discussed targeted relief such as indexing gains to inflation or expanding the primary residence exclusion ahead of midterms, with some bipartisan bills introduced on home sales. However, these proposals remain in committee with limited floor time before November, and no rate reduction has advanced. Traders assign an 87% probability to no broad federal cut by year-end, reflecting the emphasis on other fiscal priorities, procedural constraints in Congress, and the short remaining legislative calendar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
音量
$296終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent legislative action under Republican control, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in 2025, made prior individual tax provisions permanent without reducing the top long-term capital gains rate, which remains at 23.8%. In 2026, White House officials have discussed targeted relief such as indexing gains to inflation or expanding the primary residence exclusion ahead of midterms, with some bipartisan bills introduced on home sales. However, these proposals remain in committee with limited floor time before November, and no rate reduction has advanced. Traders assign an 87% probability to no broad federal cut by year-end, reflecting the emphasis on other fiscal priorities, procedural constraints in Congress, and the short remaining legislative calendar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$296終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent legislative action under Republican control, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in 2025, made prior individual tax provisions permanent without reducing the top long-term capital gains rate, which remains at 23.8%. In 2026, White House officials have discussed targeted relief such as indexing gains to inflation or expanding the primary residence exclusion ahead of midterms, with some bipartisan bills introduced on home sales. However, these proposals remain in committee with limited floor time before November, and no rate reduction has advanced. Traders assign an 87% probability to no broad federal cut by year-end, reflecting the emphasis on other fiscal priorities, procedural constraints in Congress, and the short remaining legislative calendar.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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