US-Iran military tensions since February 2026, centered on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil infrastructure, drive trader positioning in this market. Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports with loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day, yet flows have collapsed under a US naval blockade and repeated strikes on military sites, with exports falling to as low as 135,000 barrels per day in August. Recent US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg on September 5 underscore ongoing escalation risks without evidence of territorial seizure. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term probability of any listed island shifting control, consistent with historical precedent where strikes have targeted assets rather than resulted in occupation. Key upcoming catalysts include further naval engagements, potential FOMC impacts on energy prices via risk premiums, and any diplomatic signals on Hormuz access that could alter supply dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$136,381 Vol.
2026/09/30
September 30
2%
$136,381 Vol.
September 30
$83,605 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran military tensions since February 2026, centered on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil infrastructure, drive trader positioning in this market. Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports with loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day, yet flows have collapsed under a US naval blockade and repeated strikes on military sites, with exports falling to as low as 135,000 barrels per day in August. Recent US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg on September 5 underscore ongoing escalation risks without evidence of territorial seizure. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term probability of any listed island shifting control, consistent with historical precedent where strikes have targeted assets rather than resulted in occupation. Key upcoming catalysts include further naval engagements, potential FOMC impacts on energy prices via risk premiums, and any diplomatic signals on Hormuz access that could alter supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
音量
$136,381終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran military tensions since February 2026, centered on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil infrastructure, drive trader positioning in this market. Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports with loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day, yet flows have collapsed under a US naval blockade and repeated strikes on military sites, with exports falling to as low as 135,000 barrels per day in August. Recent US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg on September 5 underscore ongoing escalation risks without evidence of territorial seizure. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term probability of any listed island shifting control, consistent with historical precedent where strikes have targeted assets rather than resulted in occupation. Key upcoming catalysts include further naval engagements, potential FOMC impacts on energy prices via risk premiums, and any diplomatic signals on Hormuz access that could alter supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$136,381終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...US-Iran military tensions since February 2026, centered on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil infrastructure, drive trader positioning in this market. Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports with loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day, yet flows have collapsed under a US naval blockade and repeated strikes on military sites, with exports falling to as low as 135,000 barrels per day in August. Recent US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg on September 5 underscore ongoing escalation risks without evidence of territorial seizure. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term probability of any listed island shifting control, consistent with historical precedent where strikes have targeted assets rather than resulted in occupation. Key upcoming catalysts include further naval engagements, potential FOMC impacts on energy prices via risk premiums, and any diplomatic signals on Hormuz access that could alter supply dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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