Recent Eurozone economic data and forward indicators point to moderate Q3 2026 GDP expansion near the 0.8-1.1% year-over-year band favored by traders at 55.5% implied probability. September composite PMI readings reached multi-year highs, with services and manufacturing both expanding at the fastest pace in nearly three-and-a-half years, supported by rising demand and employment. High-frequency trackers from Goldman Sachs and others peg quarterly growth around 0.2% QoQ, consistent with the leading market outcome after Q2’s 1.2% YoY print. Offsetting factors include uneven country performance—Spain outperforming while Germany and France show softer momentum—and energy-driven inflation that prompted the ECB’s September 25-basis-point rate hike. Elevated oil and gas prices from Middle East tensions add downside risks to the growth path ahead of the October 30 flash release.
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