Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 115-139 tweets from April 11-13, 2026, driven by the live X tracker showing 134 total posts as of early April 13 EST after two full days elapsed, with a daily average of 67—firmly centering the count in this bin amid limited time remaining. This positioning reflects Musk's consistent high-volume posting rhythm, recently averaging 35-60 tweets daily across April (e.g., 57 on April 11-12, 78 on 12-13 per trader analyses), fueled by his outsized role in viral political discourse, tech announcements, and meme culture. Realistic upsets to higher ranges like 165-189 would demand an anomalous 30+ tweet surge on April 13 alone, improbable given recent trajectories and historical peaks rarely exceeding 100 daily amid his packed CEO schedule.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日115〜139 100.0%
40未満 <1%
40〜64 <1%
65〜89 <1%
$3,648,577 Vol.
$3,648,577 Vol.
40未満
いいえ
40〜64
いいえ
65〜89
いいえ
90~114
いいえ
115〜139
はい
140〜164
いいえ
165~189
いいえ
190〜214
いいえ
215~239
いいえ
240以上
いいえ
115〜139 100.0%
40未満 <1%
40〜64 <1%
65〜89 <1%
$3,648,577 Vol.
$3,648,577 Vol.
40未満
いいえ
40〜64
いいえ
65〜89
いいえ
90~114
いいえ
115〜139
はい
140〜164
いいえ
165~189
いいえ
190〜214
いいえ
215~239
いいえ
240以上
いいえ
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日: Apr 9, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 115-139 tweets from April 11-13, 2026, driven by the live X tracker showing 134 total posts as of early April 13 EST after two full days elapsed, with a daily average of 67—firmly centering the count in this bin amid limited time remaining. This positioning reflects Musk's consistent high-volume posting rhythm, recently averaging 35-60 tweets daily across April (e.g., 57 on April 11-12, 78 on 12-13 per trader analyses), fueled by his outsized role in viral political discourse, tech announcements, and meme culture. Realistic upsets to higher ranges like 165-189 would demand an anomalous 30+ tweet surge on April 13 alone, improbable given recent trajectories and historical peaks rarely exceeding 100 daily amid his packed CEO schedule.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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