The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest on record with over 6,600 confirmed cases and nearly 3,200 deaths as of early September 2026, drives the 57.5% market-implied odds for a new country confirmation before October 1. Uncontrolled community transmission, low contact-tracing rates, and high population mobility from mining, displacement, and conflict zones near borders with South Sudan, Uganda, and beyond create realistic pathways for cross-border spread. Recent expansion to a sixth DRC province and a September case in rebel-held North Kivu underscore the challenges, even as Uganda declared its outbreak over in July and France reported only an isolated imported case months ago. Traders weigh these containment gaps against the short remaining window and lack of fresh international detections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日エボラ出血熱： 10月1日までに新しい国が確認されましたか？
エボラ出血熱： 10月1日までに新しい国が確認されましたか？
はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/01
はい
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest on record with over 6,600 confirmed cases and nearly 3,200 deaths as of early September 2026, drives the 57.5% market-implied odds for a new country confirmation before October 1. Uncontrolled community transmission, low contact-tracing rates, and high population mobility from mining, displacement, and conflict zones near borders with South Sudan, Uganda, and beyond create realistic pathways for cross-border spread. Recent expansion to a sixth DRC province and a September case in rebel-held North Kivu underscore the challenges, even as Uganda declared its outbreak over in July and France reported only an isolated imported case months ago. Traders weigh these containment gaps against the short remaining window and lack of fresh international detections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
音量
$132終了日
2026/10/02マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest on record with over 6,600 confirmed cases and nearly 3,200 deaths as of early September 2026, drives the 57.5% market-implied odds for a new country confirmation before October 1. Uncontrolled community transmission, low contact-tracing rates, and high population mobility from mining, displacement, and conflict zones near borders with South Sudan, Uganda, and beyond create realistic pathways for cross-border spread. Recent expansion to a sixth DRC province and a September case in rebel-held North Kivu underscore the challenges, even as Uganda declared its outbreak over in July and France reported only an isolated imported case months ago. Traders weigh these containment gaps against the short remaining window and lack of fresh international detections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$132終了日
2026/10/02マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now the second-largest on record with over 6,600 confirmed cases and nearly 3,200 deaths as of early September 2026, drives the 57.5% market-implied odds for a new country confirmation before October 1. Uncontrolled community transmission, low contact-tracing rates, and high population mobility from mining, displacement, and conflict zones near borders with South Sudan, Uganda, and beyond create realistic pathways for cross-border spread. Recent expansion to a sixth DRC province and a September case in rebel-held North Kivu underscore the challenges, even as Uganda declared its outbreak over in July and France reported only an isolated imported case months ago. Traders weigh these containment gaps against the short remaining window and lack of fresh international detections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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