Donald Trump’s established pattern of high-volume Truth Social activity continues to anchor trader expectations for the May 15-22 window. As president he has averaged roughly 19 posts per day in 2026, surpassing 2,700 total posts this year, often featuring late-night bursts, graphics, videos, and AI-assisted content on policy, primaries, and international developments. This sustained output, frequently exceeding 20 posts on active days, underpins the market’s near-certain assessment of 200-plus posts. A sharp drop in activity from an unusually light schedule or external constraints remains the primary low-probability scenario that could still shift the final tally before resolution.