Several 2026 Senate contests remain closely matched due to modest partisan leans in Iowa, the Ohio special election, Maine, and Texas, where recent candidate nominations, early polling averages, and fundraising reports have kept margins narrow. Incumbent advantages, primary outcomes, and state-specific voter blocs continue to shape expectations, with national midterm dynamics adding uncertainty. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these races because small shifts in turnout, endorsements, or late developments could alter results, while lower-probability states show stronger structural advantages or less competitive fields. Scheduled events such as debates and additional polling releases within the next several months may widen separations among the leaders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Iowa 18.1%
Ohio (Special) 17.0%
Maine 17%
Texas 14%
$26,190 Vol.
$26,190 Vol.
2026/11/03
Iowa
18%
Ohio (Special)
17%
Maine
17%
Texas
14%
Alaska
13%
Michigan
9%
Nebraska
6%
Florida (Special)
3%
New Mexico
3%
Virginia
2%
Colorado
2%
Georgia
2%
New Hampshire
2%
North Carolina
2%
Minnesota
<1%
Montana
<1%
Iowa 18.1%
Ohio (Special) 17.0%
Maine 17%
Texas 14%
$26,190 Vol.
$26,190 Vol.
2026/11/03
Iowa
$2,622 Vol.
18%
Ohio (Special)
$4,744 Vol.
17%
Maine
$465 Vol.
17%
Texas
$705 Vol.
14%
Alaska
$5,108 Vol.
13%
Michigan
$2,246 Vol.
9%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
6%
Florida (Special)
$244 Vol.
3%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,456 Vol.
<1%
Montana
$571 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain closely matched due to modest partisan leans in Iowa, the Ohio special election, Maine, and Texas, where recent candidate nominations, early polling averages, and fundraising reports have kept margins narrow. Incumbent advantages, primary outcomes, and state-specific voter blocs continue to shape expectations, with national midterm dynamics adding uncertainty. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these races because small shifts in turnout, endorsements, or late developments could alter results, while lower-probability states show stronger structural advantages or less competitive fields. Scheduled events such as debates and additional polling releases within the next several months may widen separations among the leaders.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
音量
$26,190終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain closely matched due to modest partisan leans in Iowa, the Ohio special election, Maine, and Texas, where recent candidate nominations, early polling averages, and fundraising reports have kept margins narrow. Incumbent advantages, primary outcomes, and state-specific voter blocs continue to shape expectations, with national midterm dynamics adding uncertainty. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these races because small shifts in turnout, endorsements, or late developments could alter results, while lower-probability states show stronger structural advantages or less competitive fields. Scheduled events such as debates and additional polling releases within the next several months may widen separations among the leaders.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$26,190終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 Senate contests remain closely matched due to modest partisan leans in Iowa, the Ohio special election, Maine, and Texas, where recent candidate nominations, early polling averages, and fundraising reports have kept margins narrow. Incumbent advantages, primary outcomes, and state-specific voter blocs continue to shape expectations, with national midterm dynamics adding uncertainty. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these races because small shifts in turnout, endorsements, or late developments could alter results, while lower-probability states show stronger structural advantages or less competitive fields. Scheduled events such as debates and additional polling releases within the next several months may widen separations among the leaders.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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