China conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific on July 6, 2026, its first publicly acknowledged intercontinental-range SLBM launch into international waters in nearly two years. Beijing described the exercise as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to some regional governments. The test drew condemnation from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and several Pacific Island nations over concerns about militarization and insufficient warning, prompting ongoing diplomatic discussions at the Pacific Islands Forum in early September. Since the July event, no additional ballistic missile launches or major escalatory signals have been reported, and analysts note continued focus on submarine refits and capability development rather than immediate follow-on tests. This timeline and regional pushback align with trader consensus that another launch before December 31 is unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
18% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
18% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific on July 6, 2026, its first publicly acknowledged intercontinental-range SLBM launch into international waters in nearly two years. Beijing described the exercise as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to some regional governments. The test drew condemnation from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and several Pacific Island nations over concerns about militarization and insufficient warning, prompting ongoing diplomatic discussions at the Pacific Islands Forum in early September. Since the July event, no additional ballistic missile launches or major escalatory signals have been reported, and analysts note continued focus on submarine refits and capability development rather than immediate follow-on tests. This timeline and regional pushback align with trader consensus that another launch before December 31 is unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
マーケット開始日： Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
音量
$9,506終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific on July 6, 2026, its first publicly acknowledged intercontinental-range SLBM launch into international waters in nearly two years. Beijing described the exercise as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to some regional governments. The test drew condemnation from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and several Pacific Island nations over concerns about militarization and insufficient warning, prompting ongoing diplomatic discussions at the Pacific Islands Forum in early September. Since the July event, no additional ballistic missile launches or major escalatory signals have been reported, and analysts note continued focus on submarine refits and capability development rather than immediate follow-on tests. This timeline and regional pushback align with trader consensus that another launch before December 31 is unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
音量
$9,506終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...China conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific on July 6, 2026, its first publicly acknowledged intercontinental-range SLBM launch into international waters in nearly two years. Beijing described the exercise as routine annual training and provided limited advance notice to some regional governments. The test drew condemnation from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and several Pacific Island nations over concerns about militarization and insufficient warning, prompting ongoing diplomatic discussions at the Pacific Islands Forum in early September. Since the July event, no additional ballistic missile launches or major escalatory signals have been reported, and analysts note continued focus on submarine refits and capability development rather than immediate follow-on tests. This timeline and regional pushback align with trader consensus that another launch before December 31 is unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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