Traders have converged on Claude Opus 5 Max as the top artificial intelligence model on August 17, with market-implied odds reaching 100 percent due to its demonstrated strengths in advanced reasoning, multimodal processing, and benchmark performance. Anthropic’s latest large language model has benefited from recent official releases and third-party evaluations that highlight gains in capability and AI safety features relative to competitors. This consensus reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include surprise releases or capability jumps from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, or new regulatory constraints on model deployment ahead of major industry events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日claude-opus-5-max 100.0%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$49,411 Vol.
$49,411 Vol.
2026/08/17
claude-opus-5-max
はい
claude-opus-5-high
いいえ
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
いいえ
claude-opus-4-6
いいえ
claude-fable-5
いいえ
その他
いいえ
claude-opus-5-max 100.0%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$49,411 Vol.
$49,411 Vol.
2026/08/17
claude-opus-5-max
$21,687 Vol.
はい
claude-opus-5-high
$5,894 Vol.
いいえ
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$7,713 Vol.
いいえ
claude-opus-4-6
$1,243 Vol.
いいえ
claude-fable-5
$8,818 Vol.
いいえ
その他
$4,056 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have converged on Claude Opus 5 Max as the top artificial intelligence model on August 17, with market-implied odds reaching 100 percent due to its demonstrated strengths in advanced reasoning, multimodal processing, and benchmark performance. Anthropic’s latest large language model has benefited from recent official releases and third-party evaluations that highlight gains in capability and AI safety features relative to competitors. This consensus reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include surprise releases or capability jumps from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, or new regulatory constraints on model deployment ahead of major industry events.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
音量
$49,411終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have converged on Claude Opus 5 Max as the top artificial intelligence model on August 17, with market-implied odds reaching 100 percent due to its demonstrated strengths in advanced reasoning, multimodal processing, and benchmark performance. Anthropic’s latest large language model has benefited from recent official releases and third-party evaluations that highlight gains in capability and AI safety features relative to competitors. This consensus reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include surprise releases or capability jumps from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, or new regulatory constraints on model deployment ahead of major industry events.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$49,411終了日
2026/08/17マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Traders have converged on Claude Opus 5 Max as the top artificial intelligence model on August 17, with market-implied odds reaching 100 percent due to its demonstrated strengths in advanced reasoning, multimodal processing, and benchmark performance. Anthropic’s latest large language model has benefited from recent official releases and third-party evaluations that highlight gains in capability and AI safety features relative to competitors. This consensus reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include surprise releases or capability jumps from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, or new regulatory constraints on model deployment ahead of major industry events.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問