Trader consensus assigns claude-opus-4-6-thinking a 100% implied probability of being the top AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) as of April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, driven by its dominant Elo score from crowd-sourced battles emphasizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair in math, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking propelled it to #1 with scores like 1502-1546, outpacing rivals through superior long-context handling and instruction-following. Yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 launch bolsters Anthropic's edge long-term but awaits voter integration on the leaderboard. Realistic challenges include a pre-resolution vote surge for Opus 4.7 or competitors like Gemini 3.1 Pro, though traders see negligible risk given current positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview <1%
gemini-3-flash <1%
$80,973 Vol.
$80,973 Vol.
2026/04/17
claude-opus-4-6
いいえ
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
いいえ
gemini-3-flash
いいえ
dola-seed-2.0-preview
いいえ
kimi-k2.5-thinking
いいえ
muse-spark
いいえ
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
はい
qwen3.5-max-preview
いいえ
gemini-3-pro
いいえ
gemini-2.5-pro
いいえ
grok-4.20-beta1
いいえ
gpt-5.4-high
いいえ
glm-5.1
いいえ
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview <1%
gemini-3-flash <1%
$80,973 Vol.
$80,973 Vol.
2026/04/17
claude-opus-4-6
$7,349 Vol.
いいえ
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$4,731 Vol.
いいえ
gemini-3-flash
$1,626 Vol.
いいえ
dola-seed-2.0-preview
$1,104 Vol.
いいえ
kimi-k2.5-thinking
$610 Vol.
いいえ
muse-spark
$6,106 Vol.
いいえ
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$49,774 Vol.
はい
qwen3.5-max-preview
$964 Vol.
いいえ
gemini-3-pro
$3,454 Vol.
いいえ
gemini-2.5-pro
$649 Vol.
いいえ
grok-4.20-beta1
$1,974 Vol.
いいえ
gpt-5.4-high
$1,148 Vol.
いいえ
glm-5.1
$1,483 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns claude-opus-4-6-thinking a 100% implied probability of being the top AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) as of April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, driven by its dominant Elo score from crowd-sourced battles emphasizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair in math, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking propelled it to #1 with scores like 1502-1546, outpacing rivals through superior long-context handling and instruction-following. Yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 launch bolsters Anthropic's edge long-term but awaits voter integration on the leaderboard. Realistic challenges include a pre-resolution vote surge for Opus 4.7 or competitors like Gemini 3.1 Pro, though traders see negligible risk given current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
音量
$80,973終了日
2026/04/17マーケット開始日
Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns claude-opus-4-6-thinking a 100% implied probability of being the top AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) as of April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, driven by its dominant Elo score from crowd-sourced battles emphasizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair in math, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking propelled it to #1 with scores like 1502-1546, outpacing rivals through superior long-context handling and instruction-following. Yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 launch bolsters Anthropic's edge long-term but awaits voter integration on the leaderboard. Realistic challenges include a pre-resolution vote surge for Opus 4.7 or competitors like Gemini 3.1 Pro, though traders see negligible risk given current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve based on the model that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$80,973終了日
2026/04/17マーケット開始日
Apr 9, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus assigns claude-opus-4-6-thinking a 100% implied probability of being the top AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text Overall leaderboard (style control off) as of April 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, driven by its dominant Elo score from crowd-sourced battles emphasizing substantive reasoning over stylistic flair in math, coding, and creative tasks. Anthropic's February release of Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking propelled it to #1 with scores like 1502-1546, outpacing rivals through superior long-context handling and instruction-following. Yesterday's Claude Opus 4.7 launch bolsters Anthropic's edge long-term but awaits voter integration on the leaderboard. Realistic challenges include a pre-resolution vote surge for Opus 4.7 or competitors like Gemini 3.1 Pro, though traders see negligible risk given current positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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