Recent inflation data showing acceleration to around 6.3% by late August has reinforced trader expectations for a cautious Bank of Russia approach at the September 11 meeting. Persistent pro-inflationary pressures from fiscal expansion, lending growth, and lingering effects of earlier fuel supply disruptions have supported the consensus favoring no change at the current 14% key rate. Analysts highlight the central bank's revised 2026 average rate path of 14.5–14.6% and emphasis on underlying inflation measures near 4–5% as reasons for measured easing rather than aggressive cuts. A modest reduction remains possible if incoming Rosstat figures moderate, while any hike appears remote given the ongoing disinflation trajectory.