Market-implied odds assign an 85.5% probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 30 policy meeting because traders expect a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 gathering. Persistent upward risks to inflation—driven by yen weakness, elevated crude oil prices, and AI-related demand—have prompted the central bank to accelerate its gradual normalization from the 1% rate set in June, with July core CPI at 1.8% year-over-year underscoring price pressures. Recent communications from Governor Ueda and board members emphasize data-dependent adjustments and vigilance against overshooting the 2% target, while the solid economic backdrop supports measured steps rather than consecutive moves. The September decision and upcoming CPI releases remain key catalysts that could influence October positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 86%
25 bps increase 11%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$86,384 Vol.
$86,384 Vol.
2026/10/29
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
86%
25 bps increase
11%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 86%
25 bps increase 11%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$86,384 Vol.
$86,384 Vol.
2026/10/29
50+ bps decrease
$3,895 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$7,220 Vol.
1%
No change
$32,666 Vol.
86%
25 bps increase
$32,318 Vol.
11%
50+ bps increase
$10,284 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign an 85.5% probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 30 policy meeting because traders expect a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 gathering. Persistent upward risks to inflation—driven by yen weakness, elevated crude oil prices, and AI-related demand—have prompted the central bank to accelerate its gradual normalization from the 1% rate set in June, with July core CPI at 1.8% year-over-year underscoring price pressures. Recent communications from Governor Ueda and board members emphasize data-dependent adjustments and vigilance against overshooting the 2% target, while the solid economic backdrop supports measured steps rather than consecutive moves. The September decision and upcoming CPI releases remain key catalysts that could influence October positioning.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
音量
$86,384終了日
2026/10/30マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds assign an 85.5% probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 30 policy meeting because traders expect a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 gathering. Persistent upward risks to inflation—driven by yen weakness, elevated crude oil prices, and AI-related demand—have prompted the central bank to accelerate its gradual normalization from the 1% rate set in June, with July core CPI at 1.8% year-over-year underscoring price pressures. Recent communications from Governor Ueda and board members emphasize data-dependent adjustments and vigilance against overshooting the 2% target, while the solid economic backdrop supports measured steps rather than consecutive moves. The September decision and upcoming CPI releases remain key catalysts that could influence October positioning.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$86,384終了日
2026/10/30マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign an 85.5% probability to no change at the Bank of Japan’s October 30 policy meeting because traders expect a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the September 17-18 gathering. Persistent upward risks to inflation—driven by yen weakness, elevated crude oil prices, and AI-related demand—have prompted the central bank to accelerate its gradual normalization from the 1% rate set in June, with July core CPI at 1.8% year-over-year underscoring price pressures. Recent communications from Governor Ueda and board members emphasize data-dependent adjustments and vigilance against overshooting the 2% target, while the solid economic backdrop supports measured steps rather than consecutive moves. The September decision and upcoming CPI releases remain key catalysts that could influence October positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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