Recent softer-than-expected August IPCA data (–0.32% monthly, 4.22% annual) and moderating economic momentum have reinforced trader expectations for continued gradual easing by the Banco Central do Brasil. With the Selic at 14.00% following four consecutive 25-basis-point cuts, market-implied odds heavily favor another reduction at the November Copom meeting as inflation trends toward the 3% target amid a cooling labor market and subdued growth. The Focus survey and analyst revisions, including BofA’s call for cuts at every remaining 2026 meeting, align with this path while highlighting risks from fiscal stimulus and reacceleration in late-year prices. The closely contested “no change” outcome reflects caution around de-anchored medium-term expectations and the data-dependent stance outlined in recent statements. The September decision and intervening releases will serve as key catalysts ahead of November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 61%
変更なし 36%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き下げ 5.4%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き上げ <1%
$15,522 Vol.
$15,522 Vol.
2026/11/04
50ベーシスポイント超の引き上げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
<1%
変更なし
36%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
61%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き下げ
5%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 61%
変更なし 36%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き下げ 5.4%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き上げ <1%
$15,522 Vol.
$15,522 Vol.
2026/11/04
50ベーシスポイント超の引き上げ
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$1,771 Vol.
<1%
変更なし
$7,597 Vol.
36%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$2,854 Vol.
61%
50ベーシスポイント超の引き下げ
$1,987 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent softer-than-expected August IPCA data (–0.32% monthly, 4.22% annual) and moderating economic momentum have reinforced trader expectations for continued gradual easing by the Banco Central do Brasil. With the Selic at 14.00% following four consecutive 25-basis-point cuts, market-implied odds heavily favor another reduction at the November Copom meeting as inflation trends toward the 3% target amid a cooling labor market and subdued growth. The Focus survey and analyst revisions, including BofA’s call for cuts at every remaining 2026 meeting, align with this path while highlighting risks from fiscal stimulus and reacceleration in late-year prices. The closely contested “no change” outcome reflects caution around de-anchored medium-term expectations and the data-dependent stance outlined in recent statements. The September decision and intervening releases will serve as key catalysts ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
音量
$15,522終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent softer-than-expected August IPCA data (–0.32% monthly, 4.22% annual) and moderating economic momentum have reinforced trader expectations for continued gradual easing by the Banco Central do Brasil. With the Selic at 14.00% following four consecutive 25-basis-point cuts, market-implied odds heavily favor another reduction at the November Copom meeting as inflation trends toward the 3% target amid a cooling labor market and subdued growth. The Focus survey and analyst revisions, including BofA’s call for cuts at every remaining 2026 meeting, align with this path while highlighting risks from fiscal stimulus and reacceleration in late-year prices. The closely contested “no change” outcome reflects caution around de-anchored medium-term expectations and the data-dependent stance outlined in recent statements. The September decision and intervening releases will serve as key catalysts ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
音量
$15,522終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent softer-than-expected August IPCA data (–0.32% monthly, 4.22% annual) and moderating economic momentum have reinforced trader expectations for continued gradual easing by the Banco Central do Brasil. With the Selic at 14.00% following four consecutive 25-basis-point cuts, market-implied odds heavily favor another reduction at the November Copom meeting as inflation trends toward the 3% target amid a cooling labor market and subdued growth. The Focus survey and analyst revisions, including BofA’s call for cuts at every remaining 2026 meeting, align with this path while highlighting risks from fiscal stimulus and reacceleration in late-year prices. The closely contested “no change” outcome reflects caution around de-anchored medium-term expectations and the data-dependent stance outlined in recent statements. The September decision and intervening releases will serve as key catalysts ahead of November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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