Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and a reinstated naval blockade have driven shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to historic lows, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability on 0-20 average daily transits by end-July 2026. Iranian strikes on vessels in early July, followed by waterway closure declarations and US sanctions on oil exports, reduced flows to single-digit or low-teen daily crossings—well below the pre-conflict norm of roughly 100-140—per maritime tracking data. This environment reflects traders' capital-backed assessment of sustained disruption amid unresolved hostilities. A durable ceasefire or rapid de-escalation could lift volumes, though near-term catalysts like further strikes or sanctions adjustments remain the dominant swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0～20 100.0%
20～40 <1%
40～60 <1%
60〜80 <1%
$312,975 Vol.
$312,975 Vol.
2026/07/31
0～20
はい
20～40
いいえ
40～60
いいえ
60〜80
いいえ
80以上
いいえ
0～20 100.0%
20～40 <1%
40～60 <1%
60〜80 <1%
$312,975 Vol.
$312,975 Vol.
2026/07/31
0～20
$132,174 Vol.
はい
20～40
$56,140 Vol.
いいえ
40～60
$63,687 Vol.
いいえ
60〜80
$30,928 Vol.
いいえ
80以上
$30,046 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and a reinstated naval blockade have driven shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to historic lows, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability on 0-20 average daily transits by end-July 2026. Iranian strikes on vessels in early July, followed by waterway closure declarations and US sanctions on oil exports, reduced flows to single-digit or low-teen daily crossings—well below the pre-conflict norm of roughly 100-140—per maritime tracking data. This environment reflects traders' capital-backed assessment of sustained disruption amid unresolved hostilities. A durable ceasefire or rapid de-escalation could lift volumes, though near-term catalysts like further strikes or sanctions adjustments remain the dominant swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
音量
$312,975終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and a reinstated naval blockade have driven shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to historic lows, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability on 0-20 average daily transits by end-July 2026. Iranian strikes on vessels in early July, followed by waterway closure declarations and US sanctions on oil exports, reduced flows to single-digit or low-teen daily crossings—well below the pre-conflict norm of roughly 100-140—per maritime tracking data. This environment reflects traders' capital-backed assessment of sustained disruption amid unresolved hostilities. A durable ceasefire or rapid de-escalation could lift volumes, though near-term catalysts like further strikes or sanctions adjustments remain the dominant swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$312,975終了日
2026/07/31マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and a reinstated naval blockade have driven shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to historic lows, supporting the market's 99.5% implied probability on 0-20 average daily transits by end-July 2026. Iranian strikes on vessels in early July, followed by waterway closure declarations and US sanctions on oil exports, reduced flows to single-digit or low-teen daily crossings—well below the pre-conflict norm of roughly 100-140—per maritime tracking data. This environment reflects traders' capital-backed assessment of sustained disruption amid unresolved hostilities. A durable ceasefire or rapid de-escalation could lift volumes, though near-term catalysts like further strikes or sanctions adjustments remain the dominant swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問