**Heightened geopolitical risks from Houthi attacks and the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade have driven sustained low traffic volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, supporting the market's 96.7% implied probability on an average below 25 ships by end-August.** Data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and IMF sources showed seven-day moving averages around 24-29 vessels in early-to-late August, well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60-70 daily transits, as many operators diverted around the Cape of Good Hope or relied on shadow-fleet movements amid elevated war-risk premiums. Recent Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and broader U.S.-Iran tensions reinforced rerouting incentives, keeping compliant commercial flows suppressed. A rapid de-escalation or verifiable reduction in attacks could lift volumes toward 30+, but persistent conflict dynamics have anchored trader consensus near current disrupted levels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25未満 91.3%
25〜29 11.1%
30～34 <1%
35～39 <1%
$45,146 Vol.
$45,146 Vol.
2026/08/31
25未満
91%
25〜29
11%
30～34
<1%
35～39
<1%
40以上
<1%
25未満 91.3%
25〜29 11.1%
30～34 <1%
35～39 <1%
$45,146 Vol.
$45,146 Vol.
2026/08/31
25未満
$10,566 Vol.
91%
25〜29
$11,784 Vol.
11%
30～34
$10,740 Vol.
<1%
35～39
$5,459 Vol.
<1%
40以上
$6,619 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened geopolitical risks from Houthi attacks and the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade have driven sustained low traffic volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, supporting the market's 96.7% implied probability on an average below 25 ships by end-August.** Data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and IMF sources showed seven-day moving averages around 24-29 vessels in early-to-late August, well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60-70 daily transits, as many operators diverted around the Cape of Good Hope or relied on shadow-fleet movements amid elevated war-risk premiums. Recent Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and broader U.S.-Iran tensions reinforced rerouting incentives, keeping compliant commercial flows suppressed. A rapid de-escalation or verifiable reduction in attacks could lift volumes toward 30+, but persistent conflict dynamics have anchored trader consensus near current disrupted levels.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
音量
$45,146終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算ソース
IMF PortWatchリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened geopolitical risks from Houthi attacks and the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade have driven sustained low traffic volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, supporting the market's 96.7% implied probability on an average below 25 ships by end-August.** Data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and IMF sources showed seven-day moving averages around 24-29 vessels in early-to-late August, well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60-70 daily transits, as many operators diverted around the Cape of Good Hope or relied on shadow-fleet movements amid elevated war-risk premiums. Recent Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and broader U.S.-Iran tensions reinforced rerouting incentives, keeping compliant commercial flows suppressed. A rapid de-escalation or verifiable reduction in attacks could lift volumes toward 30+, but persistent conflict dynamics have anchored trader consensus near current disrupted levels.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$45,146終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算ソース
IMF PortWatchリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Heightened geopolitical risks from Houthi attacks and the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade have driven sustained low traffic volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, supporting the market's 96.7% implied probability on an average below 25 ships by end-August.** Data from Kpler, MarineTraffic, and IMF sources showed seven-day moving averages around 24-29 vessels in early-to-late August, well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60-70 daily transits, as many operators diverted around the Cape of Good Hope or relied on shadow-fleet movements amid elevated war-risk premiums. Recent Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and broader U.S.-Iran tensions reinforced rerouting incentives, keeping compliant commercial flows suppressed. A rapid de-escalation or verifiable reduction in attacks could lift volumes toward 30+, but persistent conflict dynamics have anchored trader consensus near current disrupted levels.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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