Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have reshaped the 45th Parliament’s seat distribution, with five defections since late 2025—including Chris d’Entremont in November, Michael Ma in December, Matt Jeneroux in February, Lori Idlout in March, and Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026—combined with by-election results to deliver a working majority. These shifts reflect policy alignment on economic priorities and governing stability amid a minority backdrop, while drawing criticism from Conservatives and New Democrats over voter mandates. Public polling shows divided Canadian views on the practice, with procedural rules allowing individual MPs to switch caucuses without immediate by-elections. No further crossings have occurred in the past six weeks, and upcoming parliamentary sessions plus potential internal party pressures could influence any additional moves before the next general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/06/30
May 31
15%
$1,868 Vol.
May 31
$255 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have reshaped the 45th Parliament’s seat distribution, with five defections since late 2025—including Chris d’Entremont in November, Michael Ma in December, Matt Jeneroux in February, Lori Idlout in March, and Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026—combined with by-election results to deliver a working majority. These shifts reflect policy alignment on economic priorities and governing stability amid a minority backdrop, while drawing criticism from Conservatives and New Democrats over voter mandates. Public polling shows divided Canadian views on the practice, with procedural rules allowing individual MPs to switch caucuses without immediate by-elections. No further crossings have occurred in the past six weeks, and upcoming parliamentary sessions plus potential internal party pressures could influence any additional moves before the next general election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
音量
$1,868終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have reshaped the 45th Parliament’s seat distribution, with five defections since late 2025—including Chris d’Entremont in November, Michael Ma in December, Matt Jeneroux in February, Lori Idlout in March, and Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026—combined with by-election results to deliver a working majority. These shifts reflect policy alignment on economic priorities and governing stability amid a minority backdrop, while drawing criticism from Conservatives and New Democrats over voter mandates. Public polling shows divided Canadian views on the practice, with procedural rules allowing individual MPs to switch caucuses without immediate by-elections. No further crossings have occurred in the past six weeks, and upcoming parliamentary sessions plus potential internal party pressures could influence any additional moves before the next general election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,868終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent floor crossings by opposition MPs to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have reshaped the 45th Parliament’s seat distribution, with five defections since late 2025—including Chris d’Entremont in November, Michael Ma in December, Matt Jeneroux in February, Lori Idlout in March, and Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026—combined with by-election results to deliver a working majority. These shifts reflect policy alignment on economic priorities and governing stability amid a minority backdrop, while drawing criticism from Conservatives and New Democrats over voter mandates. Public polling shows divided Canadian views on the practice, with procedural rules allowing individual MPs to switch caucuses without immediate by-elections. No further crossings have occurred in the past six weeks, and upcoming parliamentary sessions plus potential internal party pressures could influence any additional moves before the next general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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