Traders see a tightly contested race for third place among AI labs by end of October, with multiple outcomes implying roughly even odds near 50 percent while established players like Meta, Google, and OpenAI sit lower at 31.5 percent, 25.5 percent, and 15.6 percent respectively. This distribution reflects ongoing shifts in large language model capabilities, where recent releases and internal progress at several labs have narrowed perceived gaps in style control features and overall performance benchmarks. Competitive dynamics hinge on factors such as developer ecosystem momentum, regulatory scrutiny, and the speed of capability demonstrations, leaving room for any of several contenders to surge on new model updates or partnership announcements before the resolution window closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Meta 31%
Google 25%
OpenAI 15.5%
アリババ 13%
$40,857 Vol.
$40,857 Vol.
2026/10/31
Meta
31%
25%
OpenAI
16%
アリババ
13%
Anthropic
9%
Moonshot
5%
Z.ai
5%
Baidu
4%
Mistral
4%
SpaceXAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
Amazon
1%
MiniMax
1%
美団
1%
Nvidia
1%
テンセント
1%
マイクロソフト
1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 31%
Google 25%
OpenAI 15.5%
アリババ 13%
$40,857 Vol.
$40,857 Vol.
2026/10/31
Meta
$6,351 Vol.
31%
$17,626 Vol.
25%
OpenAI
$4,575 Vol.
16%
アリババ
$5,356 Vol.
13%
Anthropic
$565 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$469 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$337 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$320 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$404 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$309 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$299 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$507 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$514 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$385 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$398 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$400 Vol.
1%
美団
$546 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$375 Vol.
1%
テンセント
$385 Vol.
1%
マイクロソフト
$360 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$375 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place among AI labs by end of October, with multiple outcomes implying roughly even odds near 50 percent while established players like Meta, Google, and OpenAI sit lower at 31.5 percent, 25.5 percent, and 15.6 percent respectively. This distribution reflects ongoing shifts in large language model capabilities, where recent releases and internal progress at several labs have narrowed perceived gaps in style control features and overall performance benchmarks. Competitive dynamics hinge on factors such as developer ecosystem momentum, regulatory scrutiny, and the speed of capability demonstrations, leaving room for any of several contenders to surge on new model updates or partnership announcements before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
音量
$40,857終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place among AI labs by end of October, with multiple outcomes implying roughly even odds near 50 percent while established players like Meta, Google, and OpenAI sit lower at 31.5 percent, 25.5 percent, and 15.6 percent respectively. This distribution reflects ongoing shifts in large language model capabilities, where recent releases and internal progress at several labs have narrowed perceived gaps in style control features and overall performance benchmarks. Competitive dynamics hinge on factors such as developer ecosystem momentum, regulatory scrutiny, and the speed of capability demonstrations, leaving room for any of several contenders to surge on new model updates or partnership announcements before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$40,857終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for third place among AI labs by end of October, with multiple outcomes implying roughly even odds near 50 percent while established players like Meta, Google, and OpenAI sit lower at 31.5 percent, 25.5 percent, and 15.6 percent respectively. This distribution reflects ongoing shifts in large language model capabilities, where recent releases and internal progress at several labs have narrowed perceived gaps in style control features and overall performance benchmarks. Competitive dynamics hinge on factors such as developer ecosystem momentum, regulatory scrutiny, and the speed of capability demonstrations, leaving room for any of several contenders to surge on new model updates or partnership announcements before the resolution window closes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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