Escalated Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers since July 2026, coupled with territorial gains near Mokha and Perim Island, have driven persistent rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and selective AIS suppression, cutting daily Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 20–30 vessels recently versus historical norms above 50. Saudi crude loadings through the strait have recovered to about 1.5 million barrels per day, or half pre-escalation levels, while container operators cautiously restore capacity—now at roughly half 2023 peaks—reflecting war-risk premiums and insurance constraints rather than outright closure. IMF PortWatch data show no zero-transit days, keeping market-implied odds for a full shutdown low through year-end as ongoing Saudi-Houthi exchanges and military operations sustain elevated but non-zero flows.