Traders assign overwhelming probability to no divorce for Xi Jinping before 2027 due to the Chinese Communist Party’s longstanding emphasis on a stable family image to reinforce leadership authority and social harmony. Peng Liyuan has continued her public role as first lady with documented joint appearances during the September 2026 state visit to the United States and earlier diplomatic events, directly contradicting earlier unverified rumors. Strict information controls and the political costs of any personal announcement further suppress signals of change. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major undisclosed health event or internal power transition that alters personal arrangements, though such developments remain speculative and subject to rapid verification through official channels.