The USD/KRW rate has traded near 1,340 in early October 2026 after falling sharply from above 1,550 in June, supported by record semiconductor exports that produced a massive current-account surplus and steady dollar sales by exporters. This supply-driven appreciation has outweighed foreign equity outflows, elevated U.S. Treasury yields, and broad dollar strength tied to energy prices and Fed policy expectations. The Bank of Korea’s tightening bias, including recent rate hikes, has reinforced KRW resilience, while analysts highlight potential for further moves lower absent major external shocks. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC minutes, Bank of Korea policy decisions, and September-October trade data that could clarify the durability of export flows into year-end.