Ukraine’s Third Army Corps has conducted phased counterattacks under Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction of northern Donetsk Oblast since mid-2025, reclaiming at least 176 square kilometers and multiple settlements north of Lyman while disrupting Russian attempts to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk defensive belt. Geolocated reports and Ukrainian statements confirm advances and infiltrations toward villages including Terny, with Russian milbloggers noting Ukrainian pressure in the sector through September and early October 2026. These battlefield shifts, alongside Russian force reallocations and slower overall territorial gains for Moscow in Donbas, shape trader assessments of timelines for Ukrainian forces to re-enter Terny. Winter weather, Russian reinforcements, and Ukrainian sustainment of combined-arms pressure remain key variables that could alter momentum before any market resolution date.