Trump’s second term, which began in January 2025, shows no institutional or personal signals of an early exit through late 2026. The president continues to issue executive actions, manage foreign policy including the Iran conflict, and oversee a cabinet with typical turnover rates rather than mass upheaval. Public statements from administration officials, including Attorney General Pam Bondi, emphasize completion of the full term, while partisan speculation about midterm setbacks or personal fatigue has not produced concrete evidence of resignation plans. Historical patterns indicate presidents rarely resign absent impeachment-level crises or health emergencies, neither of which currently aligns with verified developments. Traders therefore price the 95.9% probability on “No” as a reflection of this stable trajectory, though unforeseen health events, scandals, or rapid congressional pressure before year-end remain theoretical variables that could still shift outcomes.