Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) control of Khartoum, solidified after recapturing the capital from Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in May 2025 and the government's return in January 2026, underpins trader consensus at 98.1% against RSF capture by June 30. A military stalemate persists into the war's fourth year, with RSF consolidating Darfur and pockets in Kordofan but no advances on Khartoum frontlines amid April 15 clashes and mutual accusations. Recent U.S. sanctions on RSF recruiters and regional tensions, including Ethiopia's alleged support, have not shifted dynamics toward the capital. With under 10 weeks remaining, only a sudden RSF breakthrough from southern axes or SAF collapse elsewhere could alter outcomes, though entrenched positions make this improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'RSF catturerà Khartoum entro il 30 giugno?
L'RSF catturerà Khartoum entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$18,208 Vol.
$18,208 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$18,208 Vol.
$18,208 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) control of Khartoum, solidified after recapturing the capital from Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in May 2025 and the government's return in January 2026, underpins trader consensus at 98.1% against RSF capture by June 30. A military stalemate persists into the war's fourth year, with RSF consolidating Darfur and pockets in Kordofan but no advances on Khartoum frontlines amid April 15 clashes and mutual accusations. Recent U.S. sanctions on RSF recruiters and regional tensions, including Ethiopia's alleged support, have not shifted dynamics toward the capital. With under 10 weeks remaining, only a sudden RSF breakthrough from southern axes or SAF collapse elsewhere could alter outcomes, though entrenched positions make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ET
Volume
$18,208Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) control of Khartoum, solidified after recapturing the capital from Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in May 2025 and the government's return in January 2026, underpins trader consensus at 98.1% against RSF capture by June 30. A military stalemate persists into the war's fourth year, with RSF consolidating Darfur and pockets in Kordofan but no advances on Khartoum frontlines amid April 15 clashes and mutual accusations. Recent U.S. sanctions on RSF recruiters and regional tensions, including Ethiopia's alleged support, have not shifted dynamics toward the capital. With under 10 weeks remaining, only a sudden RSF breakthrough from southern axes or SAF collapse elsewhere could alter outcomes, though entrenched positions make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Volume
$18,208Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 6:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) control of Khartoum, solidified after recapturing the capital from Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in May 2025 and the government's return in January 2026, underpins trader consensus at 98.1% against RSF capture by June 30. A military stalemate persists into the war's fourth year, with RSF consolidating Darfur and pockets in Kordofan but no advances on Khartoum frontlines amid April 15 clashes and mutual accusations. Recent U.S. sanctions on RSF recruiters and regional tensions, including Ethiopia's alleged support, have not shifted dynamics toward the capital. With under 10 weeks remaining, only a sudden RSF breakthrough from southern axes or SAF collapse elsewhere could alter outcomes, though entrenched positions make this improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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