Skip to main content
icon for Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?
Economy·Hormuz

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?

icon for Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?
Economy·Hormuz

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?

$208,019 Vol.

12 apr 2026
Polymarket

$208,019 Vol.

Polymarket

10

$67,321 Vol.

Yes

20

$69,827 Vol.

No

30

$22,076 Vol.

No

40

$12,047 Vol.

No

50

$19,070 Vol.

No

60

$17,679 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong confidence in at least 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day during April 8-12, 2026, driven by AIS-tracked data from Windward and IMF Portwatch showing daily volumes of 9-17 vessels—well above the threshold on multiple days amid post-ceasefire recovery via selective corridors for Chinese, Indian, and Russian flagged ships. Pre-conflict norms exceeded 130 daily transits carrying 20% of global seaborne oil trade, but March disruptions throttled flows to single digits, embedding a persistent geopolitical risk premium that propelled Brent crude above $100/bbl before a pullback to $95 amid de-escalation signals like US Navy mine-clearing operations on April 11. Upcoming US blockade enforcement starting April 13 and Iran-US talks could further influence energy futures volatility and shipping insurance rates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$208,019
Data di fine
12 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 1:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Esito proposto: Yes

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong confidence in at least 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day during April 8-12, 2026, driven by AIS-tracked data from Windward and IMF Portwatch showing daily volumes of 9-17 vessels—well above the threshold on multiple days amid post-ceasefire recovery via selective corridors for Chinese, Indian, and Russian flagged ships. Pre-conflict norms exceeded 130 daily transits carrying 20% of global seaborne oil trade, but March disruptions throttled flows to single digits, embedding a persistent geopolitical risk premium that propelled Brent crude above $100/bbl before a pullback to $95 amid de-escalation signals like US Navy mine-clearing operations on April 11. Upcoming US blockade enforcement starting April 13 and Iran-US talks could further influence energy futures volatility and shipping insurance rates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$208,019
Data di fine
12 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 1:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Esito proposto: Yes

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: Yes

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 6 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "10" a 100%, seguito da "20" a 0%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?" ha generato $208K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 8, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?", esplora i 6 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?" è "10" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "20" a 0%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8-12?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.