Russia faces sustained manpower demands from its military operations in Ukraine, particularly efforts to advance in Donetsk Oblast by late 2026 or early 2027, amid high casualties and slowing voluntary contract recruitment. Ukrainian assessments point to General Staff planning for hundreds of thousands of additional personnel across 2026–2027, supported by administrative preparations such as electronic registers, regional exercises, and expanded recruitment incentives. Following the September 2026 State Duma elections, Russian officials including President Putin have repeatedly dismissed rumors of a new public forced mobilization as unfounded, favoring instead incremental measures like the ongoing year-round conscription system, targeted pressure on reservists, foreign recruitment, and recent decrees raising authorized force levels. The autumn 2026 draft of approximately 120,000 conscripts, set to begin deployments in mid-October, continues with assurances against combat deployment in Ukraine. These approaches allow capacity expansion without triggering the domestic backlash seen in 2022.