Roger Federer's retirement from professional tennis in September 2022, following multiple knee surgeries and his final competitive match at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships, underpins the 97.6% implied probability that he will not appear at the All England Club. At 44 years old with no subsequent ATP return or official indications of a comeback, traders view any participation as highly improbable given his long-term focus on family, business ventures, and ambassadorial roles rather than competitive play. While the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for his history of resilience on grass courts, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include a one-off ceremonial appearance or exhibition if health permits, though such scenarios remain remote absent new medical developments or tournament invitations.