Rebel coalitions including the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM have sustained coordinated pressure on northern Mali through 2026, capturing Kidal and segments of the Gao region during the April offensive while conducting repeated ambushes on Malian and Russian Africa Corps positions. However, Malian forces have conducted counteroperations that retook key sites such as Anefis and maintained defensive control of Gao itself amid ongoing clashes through July. These developments, combined with the junta’s continued reliance on Russian support and the rebels’ focus on supply-line interdiction rather than sustained urban assaults, underpin trader expectations that full capture of the city remains unlikely before year-end. Recent convoy attacks near Bourem and Tabrichat highlight persistent rebel operational reach but have not altered the balance around Gao’s core defenses.