Nigel Farage triggered the August 2026 Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat amid scrutiny over donations, prompting Labour, Conservatives, and other major parties to boycott the contest. This left him facing primarily independents and novelty candidates such as Count Binface in the Reform-leaning constituency he won with 46.2 percent in 2024. Recent Survation polling shows him at approximately 73 percent on low expected turnout, well above his prior result. Trader consensus at 98.5 percent implied probability for an increased vote share reflects this opposition vacuum and established local patterns. Late shifts in turnout or unexpected consolidation behind a single rival remain the primary variables that could still narrow the margin.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
98% probabilità
$23,567 Vol.
$23,567 Vol.
13 ago 2026
Sì
98% probabilità
$23,567 Vol.
$23,567 Vol.
13 ago 2026
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage triggered the August 2026 Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat amid scrutiny over donations, prompting Labour, Conservatives, and other major parties to boycott the contest. This left him facing primarily independents and novelty candidates such as Count Binface in the Reform-leaning constituency he won with 46.2 percent in 2024. Recent Survation polling shows him at approximately 73 percent on low expected turnout, well above his prior result. Trader consensus at 98.5 percent implied probability for an increased vote share reflects this opposition vacuum and established local patterns. Late shifts in turnout or unexpected consolidation behind a single rival remain the primary variables that could still narrow the margin.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volume
$23,567Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage triggered the August 2026 Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat amid scrutiny over donations, prompting Labour, Conservatives, and other major parties to boycott the contest. This left him facing primarily independents and novelty candidates such as Count Binface in the Reform-leaning constituency he won with 46.2 percent in 2024. Recent Survation polling shows him at approximately 73 percent on low expected turnout, well above his prior result. Trader consensus at 98.5 percent implied probability for an increased vote share reflects this opposition vacuum and established local patterns. Late shifts in turnout or unexpected consolidation behind a single rival remain the primary variables that could still narrow the margin.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$23,567Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nigel Farage triggered the August 2026 Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat amid scrutiny over donations, prompting Labour, Conservatives, and other major parties to boycott the contest. This left him facing primarily independents and novelty candidates such as Count Binface in the Reform-leaning constituency he won with 46.2 percent in 2024. Recent Survation polling shows him at approximately 73 percent on low expected turnout, well above his prior result. Trader consensus at 98.5 percent implied probability for an increased vote share reflects this opposition vacuum and established local patterns. Late shifts in turnout or unexpected consolidation behind a single rival remain the primary variables that could still narrow the margin.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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