Constitutional ineligibility under Article II of the US Constitution remains the dominant driver behind the 96.7% trader consensus against an Elon Musk presidential announcement before 2027. Born in South Africa and naturalized as a US citizen, Musk does not meet the natural-born citizen requirement, a barrier consistently cited in his own past statements ruling out a candidacy. Recent activities, including endorsements for international candidates such as Marine Le Pen ahead of France’s 2027 election, support for US midterm turnout efforts, and the brief consideration then quiet shelving of a new political party, show continued political engagement without any signals of a personal US presidential bid. A constitutional amendment or novel legal reinterpretation could theoretically open a path, though both face prohibitive procedural and political hurdles within the narrow remaining window.